Last mile delivery by drones: An estimation of viable market potential and access to citizens across European cities

Aurambout, J.-P., Gkoumas, K., & Ciuffo, B. · 2019

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Using European population and land use, this paper estimates where drone depots could be economically viable and what share of citizens might be reached, under scenarios. It is cited when policy talk needs the point that cities differ. Scenario output is not treated here as a settled forecast.

It presents a framework that places candidate depots from EU-wide high-resolution data using an economic criterion. The abstract says that, in the scenario the authors treat as most technologically realistic, up to about 7 percent of EU citizens might be reached, and that the share can reach about 30 percent in technology-improvement scenarios. Coverage is described as uneven because population and land use differ by country.

The percentages are outputs of that model’s assumptions on range, cost, and demand. They are not measured demand and not a statement of permission. The map is an EU28-era picture and does not include later urban growth or regulation.